Champions League | First Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg
Jul 13, 2022 at 7pm UK
Groupama Aréna
Ferencvaros5 - 1Tobol
Form, Standings, Stats
We said: Ferencvaros 2-1 Tobol
Tobol more than held their own in the first leg last week, but it is a big ask for them to triumph on Wednesday night. We are expecting it to be a tight affair but believe that Ferencvaros will ultimately have too much and are backing the Hungarian side to advance to the second qualifying round. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ferencvaros win with a probability of 44.13%. A win for Tobol had a probability of 30.08% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ferencvaros win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (7.72%). The likeliest Tobol win was 0-1 (8.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ferencvaros would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ferencvaros | Draw | Tobol |
44.13% ( 0.02) | 25.79% ( 0) | 30.08% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 53.15% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
