Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zrinjski Mostar win with a probability of 40.06%. A win for KF Tirana had a probability of 34.6% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zrinjski Mostar win was 1-0 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.67%) and 2-0 (6.52%). The likeliest KF Tirana win was 0-1 (8.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zrinjski Mostar would win this match.