Taca de Portugal | Third Round

Oct 22, 2023 at 3pm UK

Campo Cruz Do Reguengo

Vilaverdense
3 - 2
Farense

Neves (54'), Caiado (87'), Silva (90+1')
Batista (30'), Sako (73'), Soares (74')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Talocha (90+3'), Duarte (90+8' pen.)
Luis (31')

Coverage of the Taca de Portugal Third Round clash between Vilaverdense and SC Farense.

Form, Standings, Stats

Vilaverdense

Last Game: Vilaverdense 0-2 Casa Pia
Sunday, July 23 at 6pm in Taca da Liga

SC Farense

All competitions

Last Game: Farense 0-0 Vizela
Saturday, October 7 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vilaverdense win with a probability of 46.17%. A win for SC Farense had a probability of 28.58% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vilaverdense win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.26%) and 2-0 (7.98%). The likeliest SC Farense win was 0-1 (7.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vilaverdense would win this match.

Result
Vilaverdense	Draw	SC Farense
46.17% ( -0.04)	25.24% ( -0.04)	28.58% ( 0.08)

Both teams to score 54% (

0.19)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.75% (

0.22)

49.25% (

-0.22)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.69% (

0.2)

71.3% (

-0.2)

Vilaverdense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.65% (

0.07)

21.34% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.69% (

0.12)

54.31% (

-0.12)

SC Farense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.66% (

0.17)

31.34% (

-0.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.29% (

0.2)

67.7% (

-0.2)

Score Analysis

Vilaverdense 46.17%

SC Farense 28.58%

Draw 25.24%

Vilaverdense	Draw	SC Farense
1-0 @ 10.33% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 9.26% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.98% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 4.77% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 4.11% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.76% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.84% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.59% 4-2 @ 1.07% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.48% Total : 46.17%	1-1 @ 11.98% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 6.69% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 5.37% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 1.07% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.24%	0-1 @ 7.76% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 6.95% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 4.5% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.69% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 2.08% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.74% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.86% Total : 28.58%