Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 48.64%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Gimnasia had a probability of 23.85%.

The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.97%) and 2-1 (8.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.66%), while for a Gimnasia win it was 0-1 (9.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Union would win this match.

Result
Union	Draw	Gimnasia
48.64% ( 0.16)	27.5% ( -0.3)	23.85% ( 0.14)

Both teams to score 43.74% (

0.88)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

39.3% (

1.06)

60.69% (

-1.07)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.23% (

0.79)

80.76% (

-0.8)

Union Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.88% (

0.55)

25.12% (

-0.56)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.17% (

0.76)

59.82% (

-0.77)

Gimnasia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.41% (

0.74)

41.58% (

-0.75)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.93% (

0.65)

78.07% (

-0.66)

Score Analysis

Union 48.64%

Gimnasia 23.85%

Draw 27.5%

Union	Draw	Gimnasia
1-0 @ 14.43% ( -0.34) 2-0 @ 9.97% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 8.75% ( 0.11) 3-0 @ 4.59% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 4.03% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 1.77% ( 0.09) 4-0 @ 1.59% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 1.39% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.14% Total : 48.64%	1-1 @ 12.66% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 10.44% ( -0.42) 2-2 @ 3.84% ( 0.13) Other @ 0.56% Total : 27.5%	0-1 @ 9.17% ( -0.18) 1-2 @ 5.56% ( 0.1) 0-2 @ 4.02% ( 0) 1-3 @ 1.63% ( 0.06) 0-3 @ 1.18% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.06) Other @ 1.18% Total : 23.85%