Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 45.39%. A draw had a probability of 30.6% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 23.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.9%) and 2-1 (7.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.54%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (11.06%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.