Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 77.73%. A draw had a probability of 14.6% and a win for Sampdoria had a probability of 7.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.08%) and 1-0 (10.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.95%), while for a Sampdoria win it was 0-1 (2.77%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.
Result | ||
Fiorentina | Draw | Sampdoria |
77.73% ( -0.12) | 14.61% ( 0.05) | 7.66% ( 0.08) |
Both teams to score 44.35% ( 0.21) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.4% ( 0.06) | 38.6% ( -0.06) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
39.1% ( 0.07) | 60.9% ( -0.07) |
Fiorentina Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.89% ( -0.01) | 8.11% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
71.51% ( -0.03) | 28.49% ( 0.03) |
Sampdoria Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
48.27% ( 0.24) | 51.73% ( -0.23) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
14.17% ( 0.16) | 85.83% ( -0.16) |
Score Analysis |
Fiorentina | Draw | Sampdoria |
2-0 @ 13.23% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 11.08% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 10.54% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.73% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 7.31% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 6.96% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 4.59% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 3.5% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.41% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 2.31% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.51% ( 0.01) 6-0 @ 1.46% ( -0.01) 6-1 @ 0.97% Other @ 3.14% Total : 77.72% | 1-1 @ 6.95% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 4.2% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 2.88% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.59% Total : 14.61% | 0-1 @ 2.77% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 2.29% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 0.91% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.69% Total : 7.66% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Inter Milan | 36 | 29 | 5 | 2 | 86 | 19 | 67 | 92 |
2 | AC Milan | 36 | 22 | 8 | 6 | 72 | 43 | 29 | 74 |
3 | Bologna | 36 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 51 | 27 | 24 | 67 |
4 | Juventus | 36 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 49 | 28 | 21 | 67 |
5 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 35 | 19 | 6 | 10 | 65 | 39 | 26 | 63 |
6 | Roma | 36 | 17 | 9 | 10 | 63 | 44 | 19 | 60 |
7 | Lazio | 36 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 47 | 37 | 10 | 59 |
8 | Fiorentina | 35 | 15 | 8 | 12 | 53 | 40 | 13 | 53 |
9 | Napoli | 36 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 53 | 46 | 7 | 51 |
10 | Torino | 36 | 12 | 14 | 10 | 33 | 32 | 1 | 50 |
11 | Genoa | 36 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 43 | 44 | -1 | 46 |
12 | Monza | 36 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 45 |
13 | Lecce | 36 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 37 |
14 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 36 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 48 | -14 | 34 |
15 | Udinese | 36 | 5 | 18 | 13 | 35 | 52 | -17 | 33 |
16 | CagliariCagliari | 36 | 7 | 12 | 17 | 38 | 65 | -27 | 33 |
17 | FrosinoneFrosinone | 36 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 43 | 68 | -25 | 32 |
18 | Empoli | 36 | 8 | 8 | 20 | 26 | 52 | -26 | 32 |
19 | SassuoloSassuolo | 36 | 7 | 8 | 21 | 42 | 72 | -30 | 29 |
R | Salernitana | 36 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 28 | 76 | -48 | 16 |
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