UEFA Conference League

Conference League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg

Apr 13, 2023 at 8pm UK

INEA Stadion

Lech Poznan
1 - 4
Fiorentina

(Fiorentina win 6-4 on aggregate)

Velde (20')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Cabral (4'), Gonzalez (41'), Bonaventura (58'), Ikone (63')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between Lech Poznan and Fiorentina, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lech Poznan

Last Game: Djurgarden 0-3 Lech Poznan
Thursday, March 16 at 5.45pm in Europa Conference League

Fiorentina

All competitions

Europa Conference League

Last Game: Fiorentina 1-1 Spezia
Saturday, April 8 at 1.30pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 44.1%. A win for Lech Poznan had a probability of 28.8% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.76%) and 0-2 (8.34%). The likeliest Lech Poznan win was 1-0 (9.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.

Result
Lech Poznan	Draw	Fiorentina
28.8% ( -0.13)	27.11% ( 0.01)	44.1% ( 0.12)

Both teams to score 48.47% (

-0.09)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.51% (

-0.08)

56.49% (

0.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.52% (

-0.06)

77.49% (

0.06)

Lech Poznan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.02% (

-0.14)

34.98% (

0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.28% (

-0.15)

71.73% (

0.15)

Fiorentina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.54% (

0.03)

25.46% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.71% (

0.04)

60.29% (

-0.03)

Score Analysis

Lech Poznan 28.8%

Fiorentina 44.09%

Draw 27.1%

Lech Poznan	Draw	Fiorentina
1-0 @ 9.35% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 6.72% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 4.91% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 2.35% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 1.72% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.61% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.13% Total : 28.8%	1-1 @ 12.79% 0-0 @ 8.91% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 4.6% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.8% Total : 27.1%	0-1 @ 12.18% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 8.76% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 8.34% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 3.99% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 3.8% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 2.1% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.37% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1.3% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.27% Total : 44.09%