Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 46.25%. A win for Lech Poznan had a probability of 30.98% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.92%) and 0-2 (6.28%). The likeliest Lech Poznan win was 2-1 (7.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.04%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.