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Conference League | Group Stage
Sep 8, 2022 at 5.45pm UK
Estadio Ciudad de Valencia

Villarreal
4 - 3
Lech Poznan

Chukwueze (32'), Baena (36', 40'), Coquelin (89')
FT(HT: 3-1)
Skoras (2'), Ishak (46' pen., 61')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between Villarreal and Lech Poznan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Villarreal

Last Six:
Last Game: Villarreal 4-0 Elche
Sunday, September 4 at 5.30pm in La Liga

Lech Poznan

Last Six:
    Last Game: Dudelange 1-1 Lech Poznan
    Thursday, August 25 at 7.30pm in Europa Conference League

    Data Analysis

    Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 56.25%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Lech Poznan had a probability of 17.87%.

    The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.18%) and 2-1 (8.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.68%), while for a Lech Poznan win it was 0-1 (7.67%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.

    Result
    VillarrealDrawLech Poznan
    56.25% (0.076000000000001 0.08)25.87% (-0.099 -0.1)17.87% (0.027999999999999 0.03)
    Both teams to score 40.52% (0.288 0.29)
    Goals
    Over 2.5Under 2.5
    39.16% (0.355 0.36)60.84% (-0.352 -0.35)
    Over 3.5Under 3.5
    19.12% (0.267 0.27)80.87% (-0.265 -0.27)
    Villarreal Goals
    Over 0.5Under 0.5
    78.19% (0.17999999999999 0.18)21.8% (-0.177 -0.18)
    Over 1.5Under 1.5
    44.98% (0.272 0.27)55.01% (-0.268 -0.27)
    Lech Poznan Goals
    Over 0.5Under 0.5
    51.82% (0.249 0.25)48.17% (-0.245 -0.25)
    Over 1.5Under 1.5
    16.64% (0.183 0.18)83.36% (-0.179 -0.18)
    Score Analysis
        Villarreal 56.24%
        Lech Poznan 17.87%
        Draw 25.86%
    VillarrealDrawLech Poznan
    1-0 @ 15.99% (-0.13 -0.13)
    2-0 @ 12.18% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
    2-1 @ 8.9% (0.039 0.04)
    3-0 @ 6.19% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
    3-1 @ 4.52% (0.043 0.04)
    4-0 @ 2.36% (0.019 0.02)
    4-1 @ 1.72% (0.026 0.03)
    3-2 @ 1.65% (0.028 0.03)
    Other @ 2.75%
    Total : 56.24%
    		1-1 @ 11.68% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
    0-0 @ 10.5% (-0.14 -0.14)
    2-2 @ 3.25% (0.037 0.04)
    Other @ 0.43%
    Total : 25.86%
    		0-1 @ 7.67% (-0.048 -0.05)
    1-2 @ 4.27% (0.026000000000001 0.03)
    0-2 @ 2.8% (0.0020000000000002 0)
    1-3 @ 1.04% (0.014 0.01)
    Other @ 2.1%
    Total : 17.87%

    How you voted: Villarreal vs Lech Poznan

    Villarreal
    86.4%
    Draw
    6.4%
    Lech Poznan
    7.3%
    110