Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 59.6%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Hajduk Split had a probability of 15.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.35%) and 2-1 (8.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.09%), while for a Hajduk Split win it was 0-1 (7.06%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.