Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 42.82%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 35.2% and a draw had a probability of 22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.33%) and 3-1 (5.26%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 1-2 (7.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.99%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.

Result
Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Villarreal
42.82% ( 0.07)	21.98% ( 0.04)	35.2% ( -0.11)

Both teams to score 68.96% (

-0.17)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

69.01% (

-0.21)

30.99% (

0.21)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

47.62% (

-0.25)

52.38% (

0.25)

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.64% (

-0.06)

15.36% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.87% (

-0.11)

44.13% (

0.11)

Villarreal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.47% (

-0.15)

18.52% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.24% (

-0.25)

49.75% (

0.24)

Score Analysis

Borussia Dortmund 42.82%

Villarreal 35.2%

Draw 21.98%

Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Villarreal
2-1 @ 8.42% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 5.33% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 5.26% ( 0) 2-0 @ 4.99% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 4.43% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 3.12% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.46% ( -0) 4-2 @ 2.08% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.46% ( 0.01) 4-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 0.92% ( -0) Other @ 3.18% Total : 42.82%	1-1 @ 8.99% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 7.1% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 2.84% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 2.49% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.56% Total : 21.98%	1-2 @ 7.58% ( 0) 0-1 @ 4.8% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 4.26% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 4.04% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 3.99% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 2.27% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.8% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 1.68% ( -0.02) 3-4 @ 1.05% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 0.96% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.78% Total : 35.2%