Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Liverpool win with a probability of 47.86%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Villarreal had a probability of 25.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Liverpool win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.29%) and 1-2 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.55%), while for a Villarreal win it was 1-0 (8.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Liverpool would win this match.