| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Real Madrid | 38 | 49 | 86 |
| 2 | Barcelona | 38 | 30 | 73 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 38 | 22 | 71 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 3 | 62 |
| 7 | Villarreal | 38 | 26 | 59 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 38 | 7 | 55 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 55.66%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Villarreal had a probability of 21.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.85%) and 2-0 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.93%), while for a Villarreal win it was 0-1 (6.06%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Barcelona | Draw | Villarreal |
| 55.66% ( | 23.06% ( | 21.28% ( |
| Both teams to score 53.49% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.66% ( | 46.34% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.37% ( | 68.62% ( |
| Barcelona Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.51% ( | 16.48% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.79% ( | 46.2% ( |
| Villarreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.05% ( | 35.95% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.27% ( | 72.73% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Barcelona | Draw | Villarreal |
| 1-0 @ 10.68% ( 2-1 @ 9.85% ( 2-0 @ 9.63% ( 3-1 @ 5.92% ( 3-0 @ 5.79% ( 3-2 @ 3.03% ( 4-1 @ 2.67% ( 4-0 @ 2.61% ( 4-2 @ 1.37% ( 5-1 @ 0.96% ( 5-0 @ 0.94% ( Other @ 2.21% Total : 55.65% | 1-1 @ 10.93% ( 0-0 @ 5.93% ( 2-2 @ 5.04% ( 3-3 @ 1.03% ( Other @ 0.13% Total : 23.06% | 0-1 @ 6.06% ( 1-2 @ 5.59% ( 0-2 @ 3.1% ( 1-3 @ 1.91% ( 2-3 @ 1.72% ( 0-3 @ 1.06% ( Other @ 1.85% Total : 21.28% |