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UEFA Conference League

Conference League | Third Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Aug 4, 2022 at 8pm UK
Stadion Poljud
Vitoria de Guimaraes

Hajduk Split
3 - 1
Guimaraes

Sahiti (67'), Melnjak (75'), Krovinovic (87')
Krovinovic (23')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Maga (61')
Silva (12'), Semedo (72')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between Hajduk Split and Vitoria de Guimaraes, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Hajduk Split

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Last Game: Tobol 4-1 Hajduk Split
Thursday, July 29 at 4pm in Europa Conference League
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Vitoria de Guimaraes

Last Six:
    Last Game: Puskas Academy 0-0 Guimaraes
    Thursday, July 28 at 8pm in Europa Conference League

    Data Analysis

    Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hajduk Split win with a probability of 43.89%. A draw had a probability of 28.3% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 27.78%.

    The most likely scoreline for a Hajduk Split win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.75%) and 2-1 (8.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.07%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 0-1 (10.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Hajduk Split would win this match.

    Result
    Hajduk SplitDrawVitoria de Guimaraes
    43.89% (0.054000000000002 0.05)28.33% (0.039999999999999 0.04)27.78% (-0.091000000000001 -0.09)
    Both teams to score 44.53% (-0.155 -0.16)
    Goals
    Over 2.5Under 2.5
    38.79% (-0.169 -0.17)61.21% (0.171 0.17)
    Over 3.5Under 3.5
    18.85% (-0.125 -0.13)81.15% (0.128 0.13)
    Hajduk Split Goals
    Over 0.5Under 0.5
    72.25% (-0.051000000000002 -0.05)27.75% (0.052999999999997 0.05)
    Over 1.5Under 1.5
    36.67% (-0.067 -0.07)63.33% (0.068999999999996 0.07)
    Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals
    Over 0.5Under 0.5
    61.63% (-0.17 -0.17)38.37% (0.172 0.17)
    Over 1.5Under 1.5
    24.88% (-0.163 -0.16)75.12% (0.166 0.17)
    Score Analysis
        Hajduk Split 43.88%
        Vitoria de Guimaraes 27.78%
        Draw 28.32%
    Hajduk SplitDrawVitoria de Guimaraes
    1-0 @ 13.64% (0.06 0.06)
    2-0 @ 8.75% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
    2-1 @ 8.38% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
    3-0 @ 3.74% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
    3-1 @ 3.58% (-0.01 -0.01)
    3-2 @ 1.72% (-0.013 -0.01)
    4-0 @ 1.2% (0.00099999999999989 0)
    4-1 @ 1.15% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
    Other @ 1.73%
    Total : 43.88%
    		1-1 @ 13.07%
    0-0 @ 10.64% (0.06 0.06)
    2-2 @ 4.01% (-0.024 -0.02)
    Other @ 0.59%
    Total : 28.32%
    		0-1 @ 10.2% (0.02 0.02)
    1-2 @ 6.26% (-0.028 -0.03)
    0-2 @ 4.89% (-0.014 -0.01)
    1-3 @ 2% (-0.018 -0.02)
    0-3 @ 1.56% (-0.012 -0.01)
    2-3 @ 1.28% (-0.013 -0.01)
    Other @ 1.59%
    Total : 27.78%

    How you voted: Hajduk Split vs Guimaraes

    Hajduk Split
    48.8%
    Draw
    27.9%
    Vitoria de Guimaraes
    23.3%
    43