Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 48.99%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 26.31% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.49%) and 0-2 (8.49%). The likeliest Tondela win was 1-0 (7.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.