| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 10 | 51 |
| 6 | Vitoria de Guimaraes | 33 | 4 | 45 |
| 7 | Santa Clara | 34 | -16 | 40 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 10 | Portimonense | 34 | -14 | 38 |
| 11 | Pacos de Ferreira | 34 | -15 | 38 |
| 12 | Famalicao | 33 | -7 | 36 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 46.45%. A win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 28.04% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.24%) and 2-0 (8.21%). The likeliest Pacos de Ferreira win was 0-1 (7.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.12%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Pacos de Ferreira |
| 46.45% | 25.5% | 28.04% |
| Both teams to score 52.81% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.37% | 50.63% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.46% | 72.54% |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.21% | 21.79% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45% | 54.99% |
| Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.53% | 32.47% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.01% | 68.99% |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Pacos de Ferreira |
| 1-0 @ 10.78% 2-1 @ 9.24% 2-0 @ 8.21% 3-1 @ 4.69% 3-0 @ 4.17% 3-2 @ 2.64% 4-1 @ 1.79% 4-0 @ 1.59% 4-2 @ 1.01% Other @ 2.34% Total : 46.45% | 1-1 @ 12.12% 0-0 @ 7.08% 2-2 @ 5.2% 3-3 @ 0.99% Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.49% | 0-1 @ 7.96% 1-2 @ 6.82% 0-2 @ 4.48% 1-3 @ 2.56% 2-3 @ 1.95% 0-3 @ 1.68% Other @ 2.6% Total : 28.05% |