Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 67.77%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 13.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.3%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.89%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 0-1 (4.05%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
Benfica | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
67.77% | 18.8% | 13.43% |
Both teams to score 51.38% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59% | 41% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.61% | 63.39% |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.88% | 11.12% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
64.46% | 35.54% |
Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
57.81% | 42.19% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
21.4% | 78.6% |
Score Analysis |
Benfica | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
2-0 @ 11.31% 1-0 @ 10.3% 2-1 @ 9.77% 3-0 @ 8.29% 3-1 @ 7.15% 4-0 @ 4.55% 4-1 @ 3.93% 3-2 @ 3.09% 5-0 @ 2% 5-1 @ 1.73% 4-2 @ 1.7% Other @ 3.96% Total : 67.76% | 1-1 @ 8.89% 0-0 @ 4.69% 2-2 @ 4.21% Other @ 1% Total : 18.8% | 0-1 @ 4.05% 1-2 @ 3.84% 0-2 @ 1.75% 2-3 @ 1.21% 1-3 @ 1.1% Other @ 1.48% Total : 13.43% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 30 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 87 | 27 | 60 | 80 |
2 | Benfica | 30 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 68 | 24 | 44 | 73 |
3 | Porto | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 55 | 24 | 31 | 62 |
4 | Braga | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 63 | 41 | 22 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 30 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 45 | 32 | 13 | 57 |
6 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 43 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 36 |
9 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
10 | Casa Pia | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 32 |
11 | SC FarenseFarense | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 31 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 30 | 5 | 16 | 9 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 31 |
13 | BoavistaBoavista | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 35 | 56 | -21 | 30 |
14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 45 | 52 | -7 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 30 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 30 | 62 | -32 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 30 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 29 | 62 | -33 | 21 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |