| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 10 | Portimonense | 34 | -14 | 38 |
| 11 | Pacos de Ferreira | 34 | -15 | 38 |
| 12 | Famalicao | 33 | -7 | 36 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 15 | Arouca | 33 | -22 | 31 |
| 16 | Moreirense | 33 | -17 | 29 |
| 17 | Tondela | 34 | -26 | 28 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pacos de Ferreira win with a probability of 46.03%. A draw had a probability of 27.6% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 26.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pacos de Ferreira win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.12%) and 2-1 (8.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.84%), while for a Moreirense win it was 0-1 (9.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pacos de Ferreira would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Moreirense |
| 46.03% | 27.57% | 26.41% |
| Both teams to score 45.67% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.69% | 59.31% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.29% | 79.71% |
| Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.23% | 25.77% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.29% | 60.71% |
| Moreirense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.52% | 38.48% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.77% | 75.23% |
| Score Analysis |
| Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Moreirense |
| 1-0 @ 13.44% 2-0 @ 9.12% 2-1 @ 8.71% 3-0 @ 4.12% 3-1 @ 3.94% 3-2 @ 1.88% 4-0 @ 1.4% 4-1 @ 1.33% Other @ 2.1% Total : 46.02% | 1-1 @ 12.84% 0-0 @ 9.92% 2-2 @ 4.16% Other @ 0.65% Total : 27.56% | 0-1 @ 9.47% 1-2 @ 6.13% 0-2 @ 4.52% 1-3 @ 1.95% 0-3 @ 1.44% 2-3 @ 1.32% Other @ 1.56% Total : 26.41% |