Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tondela win with a probability of 46.21%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Belenenses had a probability of 26.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tondela win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.08%) and 2-1 (8.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.79%), while for a Belenenses win it was 0-1 (9.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.