| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 16 | Moreirense | 33 | -17 | 29 |
| 17 | Tondela | 34 | -26 | 28 |
| 18 | Belenenses | 34 | -32 | 26 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 16 | Moreirense | 33 | -17 | 29 |
| 17 | Tondela | 34 | -26 | 28 |
| 18 | Belenenses | 34 | -32 | 26 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tondela win with a probability of 46.21%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Belenenses had a probability of 26.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tondela win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.08%) and 2-1 (8.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.79%), while for a Belenenses win it was 0-1 (9.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
| Result | ||
| Tondela | Draw | Belenenses |
| 46.21% | 27.35% | 26.44% |
| Both teams to score 46.27% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.45% | 58.56% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.88% | 79.13% |
| Tondela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.66% | 25.34% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.88% | 60.12% |
| Belenenses Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.97% | 38.03% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.2% | 74.8% |
| Score Analysis |
| Tondela | Draw | Belenenses |
| 1-0 @ 13.22% 2-0 @ 9.08% 2-1 @ 8.78% 3-0 @ 4.16% 3-1 @ 4.02% 3-2 @ 1.94% 4-0 @ 1.43% 4-1 @ 1.38% Other @ 2.2% Total : 46.2% | 1-1 @ 12.79% 0-0 @ 9.64% 2-2 @ 4.24% Other @ 0.68% Total : 27.35% | 0-1 @ 9.32% 1-2 @ 6.18% 0-2 @ 4.5% 1-3 @ 1.99% 0-3 @ 1.45% 2-3 @ 1.37% Other @ 1.63% Total : 26.44% |