Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 51.02%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Belenenses had a probability of 23.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.8%) and 2-1 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.12%), while for a Belenenses win it was 0-1 (7.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Gil Vicente would win this match.