Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 61.26%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 18.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.58%) and 0-1 (7.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.92%), while for a Tondela win it was 2-1 (5.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Tondela | Draw | Benfica |
| 18.85% | 19.89% | 61.26% |
| Both teams to score 60.43% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.71% | 35.29% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.69% | 57.31% |
| Tondela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.02% | 31.98% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.56% | 68.44% |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.84% | 11.16% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 64.36% | 35.64% |
| Score Analysis |
| Tondela | Draw | Benfica |
| 2-1 @ 5.09% 1-0 @ 4.07% 2-0 @ 2.32% 3-2 @ 2.12% 3-1 @ 1.93% Other @ 3.32% Total : 18.85% | 1-1 @ 8.92% 2-2 @ 5.58% 0-0 @ 3.57% 3-3 @ 1.55% Other @ 0.27% Total : 19.89% | 1-2 @ 9.78% 0-2 @ 8.58% 0-1 @ 7.83% 1-3 @ 7.15% 0-3 @ 6.27% 2-3 @ 4.08% 1-4 @ 3.92% 0-4 @ 3.44% 2-4 @ 2.24% 1-5 @ 1.72% 0-5 @ 1.51% 2-5 @ 0.98% Other @ 3.77% Total : 61.26% |