Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 42.44%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 30.51% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.65%) and 2-0 (7.85%). The likeliest Tondela win was 0-1 (9.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Estoril Praia in this match.