Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 37.08%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 36.21% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.15%) and 0-2 (6.44%). The likeliest Tondela win was 1-0 (9.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Tondela | Draw | Moreirense |
| 36.21% | 26.71% | 37.08% |
| Both teams to score 51.87% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.83% | 53.17% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.26% | 74.74% |
| Tondela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.76% | 28.24% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.05% | 63.94% |
| Moreirense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.28% | 27.72% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.71% | 63.28% |
| Score Analysis |
| Tondela | Draw | Moreirense |
| 1-0 @ 9.9% 2-1 @ 8.03% 2-0 @ 6.26% 3-1 @ 3.38% 3-0 @ 2.64% 3-2 @ 2.17% 4-1 @ 1.07% Other @ 2.76% Total : 36.21% | 1-1 @ 12.69% 0-0 @ 7.83% 2-2 @ 5.15% 3-3 @ 0.93% Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.7% | 0-1 @ 10.04% 1-2 @ 8.15% 0-2 @ 6.44% 1-3 @ 3.48% 0-3 @ 2.76% 2-3 @ 2.2% 1-4 @ 1.12% Other @ 2.89% Total : 37.08% |