Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 44.39%. A win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 30.5% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (7.41%). The likeliest Gil Vicente win was 0-1 (7.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.87%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.