| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Porto | 34 | 64 | 91 |
| 2 | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 47 | 82 |
| 3 | Benfica | 33 | 47 | 71 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 20 | 62 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 10 | 51 |
| 6 | Vitoria de Guimaraes | 33 | 4 | 45 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 60.19%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 18.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.37%) and 2-1 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.27%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 0-1 (5.31%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 60.19% | 21.68% | 18.13% |
| Both teams to score 52.72% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.22% | 44.78% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.86% | 67.14% |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.56% | 14.45% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.6% | 42.4% |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.62% | 38.38% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.86% | 75.14% |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 1-0 @ 10.72% 2-0 @ 10.37% 2-1 @ 9.94% 3-0 @ 6.69% 3-1 @ 6.41% 4-0 @ 3.24% 4-1 @ 3.1% 3-2 @ 3.07% 4-2 @ 1.48% 5-0 @ 1.25% 5-1 @ 1.2% Other @ 2.7% Total : 60.18% | 1-1 @ 10.27% 0-0 @ 5.55% 2-2 @ 4.76% 3-3 @ 0.98% Other @ 0.12% Total : 21.67% | 0-1 @ 5.31% 1-2 @ 4.92% 0-2 @ 2.54% 1-3 @ 1.57% 2-3 @ 1.52% Other @ 2.27% Total : 18.13% |