Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 62.04%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Portimonense had a probability of 16.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.9%) and 1-2 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.08%), while for a Portimonense win it was 1-0 (5.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.