| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Porto | 34 | 64 | 91 |
| 2 | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 47 | 82 |
| 3 | Benfica | 33 | 47 | 71 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Vitoria de Guimaraes | 33 | 4 | 45 |
| 7 | Santa Clara | 34 | -16 | 40 |
| 8 | Maritimo | 33 | -3 | 38 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 75.34%. A draw had a probability of 15.8% and a win for Santa Clara had a probability of 8.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.69%) and 3-0 (10.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.5%), while for a Santa Clara win it was 0-1 (3.1%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Santa Clara |
| 75.34% ( | 15.77% ( | 8.89% ( |
| Both teams to score 45.9% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.26% ( | 39.73% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.91% ( | 62.09% ( |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.07% ( | 8.92% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 69.51% ( | 30.49% ( |
| Santa Clara Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.4% ( | 49.6% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.62% ( | 84.38% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Santa Clara |
| 2-0 @ 12.92% ( 1-0 @ 10.69% ( 3-0 @ 10.4% ( 2-1 @ 9.06% ( 3-1 @ 7.3% ( 4-0 @ 6.29% ( 4-1 @ 4.41% ( 5-0 @ 3.04% ( 3-2 @ 2.56% ( 5-1 @ 2.13% ( 4-2 @ 1.55% ( 6-0 @ 1.22% ( Other @ 3.75% Total : 75.32% | 1-1 @ 7.5% ( 0-0 @ 4.43% ( 2-2 @ 3.18% ( Other @ 0.67% Total : 15.77% | 0-1 @ 3.1% ( 1-2 @ 2.63% ( 0-2 @ 1.09% ( Other @ 2.07% Total : 8.89% |