| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 14 | Vizela | 33 | -18 | 33 |
| 15 | Arouca | 33 | -22 | 31 |
| 16 | Moreirense | 33 | -17 | 29 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Vitoria de Guimaraes | 33 | 4 | 45 |
| 7 | Santa Clara | 34 | -16 | 40 |
| 8 | Maritimo | 33 | -3 | 38 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 47.34%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Santa Clara had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.36%) and 2-1 (8.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.69%), while for a Santa Clara win it was 0-1 (9.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Santa Clara |
| 47.34% | 27.16% | 25.5% |
| Both teams to score 46.07% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.55% | 58.45% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.96% | 79.04% |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.26% | 24.74% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.71% | 59.29% |
| Santa Clara Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.21% | 38.79% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.47% | 75.53% |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | Santa Clara |
| 1-0 @ 13.4% 2-0 @ 9.36% 2-1 @ 8.87% 3-0 @ 4.36% 3-1 @ 4.13% 3-2 @ 1.96% 4-0 @ 1.52% 4-1 @ 1.44% Other @ 2.31% Total : 47.34% | 1-1 @ 12.69% 0-0 @ 9.6% 2-2 @ 4.2% Other @ 0.67% Total : 27.16% | 0-1 @ 9.09% 1-2 @ 6.01% 0-2 @ 4.3% 1-3 @ 1.9% 0-3 @ 1.36% 2-3 @ 1.33% Other @ 1.52% Total : 25.5% |