Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boavista win with a probability of 39.91%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 33.95% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boavista win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.58%) and 2-0 (6.85%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Boavista in this match.