Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 52.36%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 23.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.63%) and 0-2 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.63%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 1-0 (7.04%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.