Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 44.27%. A win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 28.95% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.85%) and 2-0 (8.24%). The likeliest Gil Vicente win was 0-1 (9.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.