Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 45.05%. A draw had a probability of 27.9% and a win for Villarreal had a probability of 27.02%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.96%) and 2-1 (8.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.95%), while for a Villarreal win it was 0-1 (9.81%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Villarreal |
| 45.05% ( | 27.93% ( | 27.02% ( |
| Both teams to score 45.11% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.77% ( | 60.23% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.58% ( | 80.41% ( |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.31% ( | 26.69% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.06% ( | 61.94% ( |
| Villarreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.53% ( | 38.47% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.78% ( | 75.22% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Villarreal |
| 1-0 @ 13.56% 2-0 @ 8.96% ( 2-1 @ 8.56% ( 3-0 @ 3.94% ( 3-1 @ 3.77% ( 3-2 @ 1.8% ( 4-0 @ 1.3% ( 4-1 @ 1.25% ( Other @ 1.92% Total : 45.05% | 1-1 @ 12.95% 0-0 @ 10.26% ( 2-2 @ 4.09% ( Other @ 0.62% Total : 27.92% | 0-1 @ 9.81% ( 1-2 @ 6.19% ( 0-2 @ 4.69% ( 1-3 @ 1.97% ( 0-3 @ 1.49% ( 2-3 @ 1.3% ( Other @ 1.57% Total : 27.02% |