Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 55.19%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Villarreal had a probability of 20.68%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.39%) and 2-1 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.46%), while for a Villarreal win it was 0-1 (6.8%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Villarreal |
| 55.19% | 24.13% | 20.68% |
| Both teams to score 49.32% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.55% | 51.44% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.74% | 73.25% |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.47% | 18.52% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.24% | 49.75% |
| Villarreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.53% | 39.46% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.84% | 76.16% |
| Score Analysis |
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Villarreal |
| 1-0 @ 12.32% 2-0 @ 10.39% 2-1 @ 9.66% 3-0 @ 5.84% 3-1 @ 5.43% 3-2 @ 2.53% 4-0 @ 2.46% 4-1 @ 2.29% 4-2 @ 1.06% Other @ 3.2% Total : 55.18% | 1-1 @ 11.46% 0-0 @ 7.31% 2-2 @ 4.49% Other @ 0.86% Total : 24.13% | 0-1 @ 6.8% 1-2 @ 5.33% 0-2 @ 3.16% 1-3 @ 1.65% 2-3 @ 1.39% 0-3 @ 0.98% Other @ 1.38% Total : 20.68% |