Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 52.07%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Numancia had a probability of 22.93%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.78%) and 1-2 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.87%), while for a Numancia win it was 1-0 (7.41%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Numancia	Draw	Atletico Madrid
22.93% ( -0.06)	25% ( -0.12)	52.07% ( 0.18)

Both teams to score 49.63% (

0.3)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.48% (

0.43)

52.52% (

-0.43)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.82% (

0.36)

74.18% (

-0.36)

Numancia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.16% (

0.19)

37.84% (

-0.18)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.38% (

0.18)

74.62% (

-0.18)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.84% (

0.24)

20.16% (

-0.24)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.55% (

0.39)

52.45% (

-0.39)

Score Analysis

Numancia 22.93%

Atletico Madrid 52.06%

Draw 25%

Numancia	Draw	Atletico Madrid
1-0 @ 7.41% ( -0.09) 2-1 @ 5.77% ( 0) 2-0 @ 3.6% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 1.87% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.5% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 1.17% ( -0) Other @ 1.61% Total : 22.93%	1-1 @ 11.87% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 7.63% ( -0.13) 2-2 @ 4.62% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.88% Total : 25%	0-1 @ 12.21% ( -0.12) 0-2 @ 9.78% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 9.51% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 5.22% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 5.08% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 2.47% ( 0.04) 0-4 @ 2.09% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 2.03% ( 0.04) 2-4 @ 0.99% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.69% Total : 52.06%