Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 51.11%. A win for Sampdoria had a probability of 24.84% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.65%) and 2-0 (8.71%). The likeliest Sampdoria win was 0-1 (6.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.38%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.