Major League Soccer

May 16, 2024 at 3.30am UK

Providence Park

Portland
4 - 2
Earthquakes

Evander (74' pen., 74' pen.), Rodriguez (80', 80', 90+10', 90+10'), Mora (90+1' pen., 90' pen.)
Miller (82'), Miller (82')

FT(HT: 0-4)

Pellegrino (31', 31'), Lopez (34', 34')
Yarbrough (89'), Yarbrough (89')
Wilson (71'), Wilson (72')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Major League Soccer clash between Portland Timbers and San Jose Earthquakes, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Portland Timbers

All competitions

Last Game: Portland 1-2 Seattle
Sunday, May 12 at 9.45pm in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Top scorers

San Jose Earthquakes

All competitions

Last Game: Colorado 2-3 Earthquakes
Sunday, May 12 at 2.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portland Timbers win with a probability of 50.42%. A win for San Jose Earthquakes had a probability of 26.8% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Portland Timbers win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.04%) and 2-0 (7.41%). The likeliest San Jose Earthquakes win was 1-2 (6.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.36%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portland Timbers would win this match.

Result
Portland Timbers	Draw	San Jose Earthquakes
50.42% ( 0.04)	22.78% ( -0.01)	26.8% ( -0.03)

Both teams to score 60.97% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.57% (

0.03)

39.43% (

-0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.23% (

0.03)

61.77% (

-0.03)

Portland Timbers Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.16% (

0.02)

15.83% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.98% (

0.05)

45.02% (

-0.05)

San Jose Earthquakes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.44% (

-0.01)

27.55% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.93% (

-0.01)

63.07% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

Portland Timbers 50.42%

San Jose Earthquakes 26.8%

Draw 22.77%

Portland Timbers	Draw	San Jose Earthquakes
2-1 @ 9.55% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.04% ( -0) 2-0 @ 7.41% ( 0) 3-1 @ 5.87% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 4.55% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.78% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.7% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.1% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.74% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1% ( 0) Other @ 3.68% Total : 50.42%	1-1 @ 10.36% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.16% 0-0 @ 4.36% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.63% ( 0) Other @ 0.27% Total : 22.77%	1-2 @ 6.68% ( -0) 0-1 @ 5.62% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 3.63% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.87% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.65% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.56% ( -0) 1-4 @ 0.93% ( -0) Other @ 2.87% Total : 26.8%