Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rosario Central win with a probability of 54.7%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Caracas had a probability of 20.35%.

The most likely scoreline for a Rosario Central win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.82%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.74%), while for a Caracas win it was 0-1 (7.31%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Rosario Central would win this match.

Result
Rosario Central	Draw	Caracas
54.7% ( 0.14)	24.95% ( 0.02)	20.35% ( -0.17)

Both teams to score 46.49% (

-0.29)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.04% (

-0.26)

54.95% (

0.26)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.76% (

-0.22)

76.23% (

0.21)

Rosario Central Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.93% (

-0.05)

20.06% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.71% (

-0.07)

52.29% (

0.07)

Caracas Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.16% (

-0.33)

41.84% (

0.33)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

21.7% (

-0.29)

78.29% (

0.29)

Score Analysis

Rosario Central 54.69%

Caracas 20.35%

Draw 24.94%

Rosario Central	Draw	Caracas
1-0 @ 13.48% ( 0.12) 2-0 @ 10.82% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 9.44% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 5.8% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 5.05% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 2.33% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.2% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 2.03% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.54% Total : 54.69%	1-1 @ 11.74% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.39% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 4.11% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.7% Total : 24.94%	0-1 @ 7.31% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 5.12% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 3.19% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 1.49% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.12% Total : 20.35%