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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 37.11%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 34.04% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.66%) and 0-2 (7.06%). The likeliest Newport County win was 1-0 (11.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Newport County | Draw | Carlisle United |
| 34.04% | 28.85% | 37.11% |
| Both teams to score 45.21% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.62% | 61.38% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.72% | 81.27% |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.24% | 33.76% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.58% | 70.42% |
| Carlisle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.25% | 31.74% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.83% | 68.17% |
| Score Analysis |
| Newport County | Draw | Carlisle United |
| 1-0 @ 11.63% 2-1 @ 7.25% 2-0 @ 6.32% 3-1 @ 2.63% 3-0 @ 2.29% 3-2 @ 1.51% Other @ 2.41% Total : 34.03% | 1-1 @ 13.35% 0-0 @ 10.71% 2-2 @ 4.16% Other @ 0.62% Total : 28.84% | 0-1 @ 12.29% 1-2 @ 7.66% 0-2 @ 7.06% 1-3 @ 2.93% 0-3 @ 2.7% 2-3 @ 1.59% Other @ 2.88% Total : 37.1% |