Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 43.45%. A draw had a probability of 28.5% and a win for Carlisle United had a probability of 28.03%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.68%) and 1-2 (8.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.12%), while for a Carlisle United win it was 1-0 (10.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.