League Two

League Two | Gameweek 11

Oct 12, 2024 at 3pm UK

Kingsmeadow

AFC Wimbledon
4 - 0
Carlisle

Stevens (8', 39', 50'), Harper (45+3' og.)
Maycock (6'), Harbottle (56')

FT(HT: 3-0)

Barclay (34'), Vela (60')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League Two clash between AFC Wimbledon and Carlisle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AFC Wimbledon

All competitions

League Two

Last Game: Crawley 3-4 AFC Wimbledon
Tuesday, October 8 at 7.45pm in EFL Trophy

Goals
for

Carlisle United

All competitions

League Two

Last Game: Carlisle 0-2 Wigan
Tuesday, October 8 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 44.34%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 29.44% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.97%) and 2-0 (8%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (8.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.

Result
AFC Wimbledon	Draw	Carlisle United
44.34% ( 0.02)	26.22% ( -0.08)	29.44% ( 0.07)

Both teams to score 51.45% (

0.28)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.18% (

0.35)

52.82% (

-0.34)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.56% (

0.3)

74.44% (

-0.29)

AFC Wimbledon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.29% (

0.16)

23.71% (

-0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.17% (

0.23)

57.83% (

-0.23)

Carlisle United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.43% (

0.23)

32.56% (

-0.22)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.9% (

0.25)

69.1% (

-0.25)

Score Analysis

AFC Wimbledon 44.34%

Carlisle United 29.44%

Draw 26.21%

AFC Wimbledon	Draw	Carlisle United
1-0 @ 11.11% ( -0.1) 2-1 @ 8.97% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 4.31% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 3.84% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.42% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 1.55% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.38% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.77% Total : 44.34%	1-1 @ 12.46% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 7.72% ( -0.11) 2-2 @ 5.03% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 0.9% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.21%	0-1 @ 8.66% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 6.99% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 4.86% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.62% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.88% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 1.82% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.61% Total : 29.44%