League Two

League Two | Gameweek 19

Feb 11, 2025 at 7.45pm UK

Rodney Parade

Newport
1 - 0
Carlisle

Hudlin (76')
Evans (33')

FT(HT: 0-0)

McArthur (36'), Whelan (47'), Williams (63'), Lavelle (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League Two clash between Newport County and Carlisle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Newport County

All competitions

Last Game: Crewe 0-3 Newport
Saturday, February 8 at 3pm in League Two

Goals
for

Carlisle United

All competitions

Last Game: Grimsby Town 2-1 Carlisle
Saturday, February 8 at 3pm in League Two

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 40.53%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 33.84% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.7%) and 0-2 (6.77%). The likeliest Newport County win was 1-0 (8.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.

Result
Newport County	Draw	Carlisle United
33.84% ( 1.34)	25.64% ( 0.28)	40.53% ( -1.61)

Both teams to score 55.09% (

-0.53)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.09% (

-0.86)

48.91% (

0.86)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29% (

-0.79)

71% (

0.79)

Newport County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.37% (

0.42)

27.62% (

-0.42)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.83% (

0.53)

63.16% (

-0.53)

Carlisle United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.12% (

-1.18)

23.88% (

1.18)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.92% (

-1.72)

58.08% (

1.72)

Score Analysis

Newport County 33.84%

Carlisle United 40.53%

Draw 25.63%

Newport County	Draw	Carlisle United
1-0 @ 8.49% ( 0.39) 2-1 @ 7.82% ( 0.19) 2-0 @ 5.46% ( 0.31) 3-1 @ 3.35% ( 0.12) 3-2 @ 2.4% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.34% ( 0.16) 4-1 @ 1.08% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.9% Total : 33.84%	1-1 @ 12.15% ( 0.15) 0-0 @ 6.6% ( 0.23) 2-2 @ 5.6% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.63%	0-1 @ 9.45% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 8.7% ( -0.2) 0-2 @ 6.77% ( -0.23) 1-3 @ 4.16% ( -0.24) 0-3 @ 3.23% ( -0.23) 2-3 @ 2.67% ( -0.12) 1-4 @ 1.49% ( -0.14) 0-4 @ 1.16% ( -0.13) 2-4 @ 0.96% ( -0.08) Other @ 1.95% Total : 40.53%