Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estonia win with a probability of 38.91%. A win for Lithuania had a probability of 33.67% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estonia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.23%) and 2-0 (7.09%). The likeliest Lithuania win was 0-1 (10.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.
