Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Central Coast Mariners win with a probability of 38.48%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 37.34% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Central Coast Mariners win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.41%) and 0-2 (5.65%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 (8.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Central Coast Mariners |
| 37.34% | 24.19% | 38.48% |
| Both teams to score 60.76% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.22% | 41.79% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.81% | 64.19% |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.66% | 22.34% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.18% | 55.82% |
| Central Coast Mariners Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.24% | 21.77% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.05% | 54.95% |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Central Coast Mariners |
| 2-1 @ 8.33% 1-0 @ 7.29% 2-0 @ 5.46% 3-1 @ 4.16% 3-2 @ 3.17% 3-0 @ 2.73% 4-1 @ 1.56% 4-2 @ 1.19% 4-0 @ 1.02% Other @ 2.43% Total : 37.34% | 1-1 @ 11.11% 2-2 @ 6.35% 0-0 @ 4.86% 3-3 @ 1.61% Other @ 0.25% Total : 24.19% | 1-2 @ 8.47% 0-1 @ 7.41% 0-2 @ 5.65% 1-3 @ 4.31% 2-3 @ 3.23% 0-3 @ 2.87% 1-4 @ 1.64% 2-4 @ 1.23% 0-4 @ 1.1% Other @ 2.56% Total : 38.48% |