Primeira Liga | Gameweek 5

Sep 13, 2024 at 8.15pm UK

Estadio Municipal de Arouca

Arouca
0 - 3
Sporting Lisbon

Sylla (54'), Fontan (60'), N'Diaye (90+7')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Goncalves (24'), Gyokeres (73' pen.), Trincao (80')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Primeira Liga clash between Arouca and Sporting Lisbon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Arouca

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Rio Ave 1-0 Arouca
Sunday, September 1 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Sporting Lisbon

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 2-0 Porto
Saturday, August 31 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 68.6%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 13.25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.72%) and 0-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.51%), while for an Arouca win it was 2-1 (3.82%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.

Result
Arouca	Draw	Sporting Lisbon
13.25% ( 0.08)	18.15% ( 0.06)	68.6% ( -0.14)

Both teams to score 53.2% (

0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.63% (

-0.07)

38.37% (

0.07)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.34% (

-0.08)

60.65% (

0.08)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.22% (

0.08)

40.78% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.64% (

0.07)

77.35% (

-0.07)

Sporting Lisbon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.82% (

-0.06)

10.18% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

66.56% (

-0.13)

33.43% (

0.12)

Score Analysis

Arouca 13.25%

Sporting Lisbon 68.6%

Draw 18.15%

Arouca	Draw	Sporting Lisbon
2-1 @ 3.82% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 3.72% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 1.67% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.3% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 1.14% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.6% Total : 13.25%	1-1 @ 8.51% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 4.36% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.15% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 0.99% ( 0) Other @ 0.14% Total : 18.15%	0-2 @ 10.83% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 9.72% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 9.48% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 8.25% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 7.4% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 4.71% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 4.23% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 3.32% ( 0) 0-5 @ 2.15% ( -0.02) 1-5 @ 1.93% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.9% ( -0) Other @ 4.67% Total : 68.6%