Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 68.6%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 13.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.72%) and 0-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.51%), while for an Arouca win it was 2-1 (3.82%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Result | ||
Arouca | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
13.25% ( 0.08) | 18.15% ( 0.06) | 68.6% ( -0.14) |
Both teams to score 53.2% ( 0.04) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.63% ( -0.07) | 38.37% ( 0.07) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
39.34% ( -0.08) | 60.65% ( 0.08) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
59.22% ( 0.08) | 40.78% ( -0.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.64% ( 0.07) | 77.35% ( -0.07) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
89.82% ( -0.06) | 10.18% ( 0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
66.56% ( -0.13) | 33.43% ( 0.12) |
Score Analysis |
Arouca | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
2-1 @ 3.82% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 3.72% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 1.67% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.3% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 1.14% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.6% Total : 13.25% | 1-1 @ 8.51% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 4.36% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.15% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 0.99% ( 0) Other @ 0.14% Total : 18.15% | 0-2 @ 10.83% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 9.72% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 9.48% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 8.25% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 7.4% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 4.71% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 4.23% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 3.32% ( 0) 0-5 @ 2.15% ( -0.02) 1-5 @ 1.93% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.9% ( -0) Other @ 4.67% Total : 68.6% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 25 | 24 |
2 | Porto | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 4 | 14 | 21 |
3 | Benfica | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 16 |
4 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 15 |
5 | Braga | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 14 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 14 |
7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 11 |
9 | Gil Vicente | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 10 |
10 | AVS | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 9 |
11 | Casa Pia | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 8 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 8 |
13 | AroucaArouca | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 7 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 6 |
15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 6 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 5 |
17 | Nacional | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 5 |
18 | SC FarenseFarense | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 4 |
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