Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 47.38%. A win for Porto had a probability of 30.25% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.62%) and 2-0 (6.22%). The likeliest Porto win was 1-2 (7.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.71%).