Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 56.82%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 21.73% and a draw had a probability of 21.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.43%) and 1-0 (8.4%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 1-2 (5.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.8%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.

Result
Sporting Lisbon	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
56.82% ( 0.03)	21.45% ( -0.01)	21.73% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 59.61% (

0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.46% (

0.05)

38.53% (

-0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.17% (

0.05)

60.83% (

-0.05)

Sporting Lisbon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.56% (

0.03)

13.43% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.59% (

0.05)

40.4% (

-0.05)

Athletic Bilbao Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.86% (

0.02)

31.13% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.54% (

0.02)

67.46% (

-0.02)

Score Analysis

Sporting Lisbon 56.82%

Athletic Bilbao 21.73%

Draw 21.45%

Sporting Lisbon	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
2-1 @ 9.83% ( -0) 2-0 @ 8.43% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.4% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 6.58% ( 0) 3-0 @ 5.64% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.84% ( 0) 4-1 @ 3.3% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 2.83% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.93% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.33% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.14% ( 0) Other @ 3.59% Total : 56.82%	1-1 @ 9.8% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.74% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.18% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.49% ( 0) Other @ 0.24% Total : 21.45%	1-2 @ 5.72% ( -0) 0-1 @ 4.88% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 2.85% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.23% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.22% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.11% ( -0) Other @ 2.72% Total : 21.73%