Primeira Liga | Gameweek 25

Mar 10, 2024 at 6pm UK

Estadio Municipal de Arouca

Arouca
0 - 3
Sporting Lisbon

Simao (80'), Galovic (84')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Gyokeres (19'), Catamo (90+1'), Hjulmand (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Arouca and Sporting Lisbon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Arouca

All competitions

Last Game: Chaves 1-5 Arouca
Friday, March 1 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Sporting Lisbon

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 1-1 Atalanta
Wednesday, March 6 at 5.45pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 71.23%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 11.56%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.73%) and 1-2 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.11%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-0 (3.45%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.

Result
Arouca	Draw	Sporting Lisbon
11.56% ( 0.17)	17.21% ( 0.26)	71.23% ( -0.43)

Both teams to score 51.18% (

-0.4)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.7% (

-0.81)

38.3% (

0.81)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.42% (

-0.86)

60.58% (

0.86)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

56.57% (

-0.25)

43.43% (

0.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.35% (

-0.21)

79.65% (

0.21)

Sporting Lisbon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.47% (

-0.31)

9.52% (

0.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

68.08% (

-0.73)

31.92% (

0.73)

Score Analysis

Arouca 11.56%

Sporting Lisbon 71.22%

Draw 17.21%

Arouca	Draw	Sporting Lisbon
1-0 @ 3.45% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 3.38% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 1.44% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 1.11% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 0.94% ( 0) Other @ 1.25% Total : 11.56%	1-1 @ 8.11% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 4.14% ( 0.16) 2-2 @ 3.98% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.98% Total : 17.21%	0-2 @ 11.43% ( 0.12) 0-1 @ 9.73% ( 0.24) 1-2 @ 9.54% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 8.96% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 7.47% ( -0.08) 0-4 @ 5.27% ( -0.09) 1-4 @ 4.39% ( -0.11) 2-3 @ 3.12% ( -0.05) 0-5 @ 2.48% ( -0.08) 1-5 @ 2.07% ( -0.08) 2-4 @ 1.83% ( -0.06) 0-6 @ 0.97% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.97% Total : 71.22%