Primeira Liga | Gameweek 20

Feb 3, 2024 at 3.30pm UK

Estadio Municipal de Portimao

Portimonense
1 - 2
Arouca

Carrillo (71')
Ventura (20'), Jasper (56'), Carlinhos (63'), Guga (68')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Mujica (48'), Rocha (52')
Milovanov (45+1')
Cunha (21')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Portimonense and Arouca, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Portimonense

All competitions

Last Game: Boavista 1-4 Portimonense
Sunday, January 28 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Arouca

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Arouca 5-0 Vizela
Sunday, January 28 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 46.11%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 27.96% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.14%) and 0-2 (8.35%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 1-0 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.

Result
Portimonense	Draw	Arouca
27.96% ( 0.87)	25.93% ( 0.4)	46.11% ( -1.28)

Both teams to score 51.43% (

-0.61)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.58% (

-1.1)

52.41% (

1.09)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.91% (

-0.95)

74.09% (

0.95)

Portimonense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.52% (

0.11)

33.47% (

-0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.89% (

0.11)

70.11% (

-0.12)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.3% (

-1.04)

22.7% (

1.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.64% (

-1.56)

56.35% (

1.56)

Score Analysis

Portimonense 27.96%

Arouca 46.1%

Draw 25.93%

Portimonense	Draw	Arouca
1-0 @ 8.32% ( 0.38) 2-1 @ 6.75% ( 0.12) 2-0 @ 4.55% ( 0.22) 3-1 @ 2.46% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 1.83% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 1.66% ( 0.09) Other @ 2.4% Total : 27.96%	1-1 @ 12.33% ( 0.19) 0-0 @ 7.6% ( 0.32) 2-2 @ 5% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 0.9% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.93%	0-1 @ 11.26% ( 0.14) 1-2 @ 9.14% ( -0.14) 0-2 @ 8.35% ( -0.16) 1-3 @ 4.52% ( -0.22) 0-3 @ 4.13% ( -0.21) 2-3 @ 2.47% ( -0.11) 1-4 @ 1.68% ( -0.14) 0-4 @ 1.53% ( -0.13) 2-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.1% Total : 46.1%