Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 46.11%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 27.96% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.14%) and 0-2 (8.35%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 1-0 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
Result | ||
Portimonense | Draw | Arouca |
27.96% ( 0.87) | 25.93% ( 0.4) | 46.11% ( -1.28) |
Both teams to score 51.43% ( -0.61) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.58% ( -1.1) | 52.41% ( 1.09) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.91% ( -0.95) | 74.09% ( 0.95) |
Portimonense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.52% ( 0.11) | 33.47% ( -0.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.89% ( 0.11) | 70.11% ( -0.12) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.3% ( -1.04) | 22.7% ( 1.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.64% ( -1.56) | 56.35% ( 1.56) |
Score Analysis |
Portimonense | Draw | Arouca |
1-0 @ 8.32% ( 0.38) 2-1 @ 6.75% ( 0.12) 2-0 @ 4.55% ( 0.22) 3-1 @ 2.46% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 1.83% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 1.66% ( 0.09) Other @ 2.4% Total : 27.96% | 1-1 @ 12.33% ( 0.19) 0-0 @ 7.6% ( 0.32) 2-2 @ 5% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 0.9% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.93% | 0-1 @ 11.26% ( 0.14) 1-2 @ 9.14% ( -0.14) 0-2 @ 8.35% ( -0.16) 1-3 @ 4.52% ( -0.22) 0-3 @ 4.13% ( -0.21) 2-3 @ 2.47% ( -0.11) 1-4 @ 1.68% ( -0.14) 0-4 @ 1.53% ( -0.13) 2-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.1% Total : 46.1% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 81 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 63 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 46 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 34 |
11 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 31 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
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