Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 37.86%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 36.76% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.4%) and 0-2 (6.09%). The likeliest Arouca win was 1-0 (8.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
Result | ||
Arouca | Draw | Gil Vicente |
36.76% ( -0.03) | 25.37% ( 0) | 37.86% ( 0.03) |
Both teams to score 56.43% ( -0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.63% ( -0.02) | 47.37% ( 0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.41% ( -0.02) | 69.58% ( 0.01) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.82% ( -0.03) | 25.18% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.09% ( -0.04) | 59.9% ( 0.03) |
Gil Vicente Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.42% ( 0.01) | 24.58% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.93% ( 0.01) | 59.07% ( -0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Arouca | Draw | Gil Vicente |
1-0 @ 8.54% ( -0) 2-1 @ 8.26% ( -0) 2-0 @ 5.89% ( -0) 3-1 @ 3.8% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.71% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.66% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.31% ( -0) 4-0 @ 0.93% ( -0) 4-2 @ 0.92% ( -0) Other @ 1.76% Total : 36.76% | 1-1 @ 11.97% 0-0 @ 6.19% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.8% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.25% ( -0) Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.36% | 0-1 @ 8.69% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 8.4% ( 0) 0-2 @ 6.09% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 3.93% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.85% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.71% 1-4 @ 1.38% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1% ( 0) 2-4 @ 0.95% Other @ 1.86% Total : 37.86% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 81 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 63 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 46 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 34 |
11 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 31 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
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