Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vizela win with a probability of 41.23%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 31.26% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vizela win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.44%) and 0-2 (7.71%). The likeliest Arouca win was 1-0 (9.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.